Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 57.58%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 21.98% and a draw had a probability of 20.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.51%) and 1-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Monaco win was 1-2 (5.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.