Primeira Liga | Gameweek 26

Mar 16, 2025 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio da Madeira

Nacional
3 - 1
Casa Pia

Penha (45+4'), Paulinho (60'), Joel (75')
Rodrigues dos Santos (45'), Appiah (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Larrazabal (49')
Kluivert (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Casa Pia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Benfica 3-0 Nacional
Saturday, March 8 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Casa Pia

All competitions

Last Game: Casa Pia 1-3 Sporting Lisbon
Sunday, March 9 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 45.37%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 28.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Casa Pia
45.37% ( -0.17)	25.87% ( 0.06)	28.75% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 52.12% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.24% (

-0.17)

51.76% (

0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.47% (

-0.15)

73.53% (

0.15)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.24% (

-0.15)

22.76% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.55% (

-0.23)

56.45% (

0.23)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.48% (

-0)

32.52% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.95% (

-0)

69.05% (

Score Analysis

Nacional 45.37%

Casa Pia 28.75%

Draw 25.87%

Nacional	Draw	Casa Pia
1-0 @ 10.95% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.11% Total : 45.37%	1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.4% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.87%	0-1 @ 8.31% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.61% Total : 28.75%