Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 38.4%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 34.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.