Primeira Liga | Gameweek 29

Apr 12, 2025 at 8.30pm UK

Campo do Cevadeiro

Casa Pia
0 - 1
Porto

Roberto (26'), Fonte (52')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Mora Carvalho (5')
Pedro (67'), Fernandes (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Casa Pia and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Casa Pia

All competitions

Last Game: Farense 0-0 Casa Pia
Monday, April 7 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Porto

All competitions

Last Game: Porto 1-4 Benfica
Sunday, April 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 65.5%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 14.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.13%) and 1-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Porto
14.06% ( 0.14)	20.44% ( 0.11)	65.5% ( -0.24)

Both teams to score 47.65% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.14% (

-0.16)

46.86% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.89% (

-0.15)

69.11% (

0.15)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.08% (

0.1)

44.92% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.13% (

0.08)

80.87% (

-0.08)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.51% (

-0.12)

13.49% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.49% (

-0.24)

40.51% (

0.25)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 14.06%

Porto 65.49%

Draw 20.44%

Casa Pia	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 3.89% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.31% Total : 14.06%	1-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.77% Total : 20.44%	0-2 @ 12.15% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 12.13% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 8.12% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 6.5% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 4.07% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 3.25% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 1.3% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.7% Total : 65.49%