Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 12

Nov 11, 2023 at 3pm UK

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal
3 - 1
Burnley

Trossard (45+1'), Saliba (57'), Zinchenko (74')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Brownhill (54')
Berg Gudmundsson (90+3')

Reaction

Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard pictured in August 2023

Mikel Arteta issues update on Martin Odegaard, Ben White injuries

Mikel Arteta provides an update on Ben White and Martin Odegaard's injuries after the pair sit out Arsenal's 3-1 win over Burnley in the Premier League.

Nov 11, 22:01

Arsenal's Fabio Vieira is shown a red card by referee Michael Oliver on November 11, 2023

Mikel Arteta: 'Fabio Vieira red card was a really good decision'

Mikel Arteta has no complaints about Fabio Vieira's late red card in Arsenal's 3-1 win over Burnley at the Emirates.

Nov 11, 21:44

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Arsenal

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Arsenal 2-0 Sevilla
Wednesday, November 8 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Burnley

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Burnley 0-2 Crystal Palace
Saturday, November 4 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 69.7%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 13.17%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 1-0 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.79%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-2 (3.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
Arsenal	Draw	Burnley
69.7% ( 0.14)	17.13% ( -0.08)	13.17% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 56.87% (

0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.43% (

0.23)

33.57% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.63% (

0.27)

55.37% (

-0.26)

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.34% (

0.09)

8.66% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.15% (

0.22)

29.85% (

-0.21)

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.27% (

0.07)

37.73% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.49% (

0.07)

74.51% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Arsenal 69.7%

Burnley 13.17%

Draw 17.13%

Arsenal	Draw	Burnley
2-0 @ 9.78% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.99% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 7.98% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.79% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.33% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.14% Total : 69.7%	1-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.64% 0-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 17.13%	1-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.18% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.51% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0) Other @ 1.9% Total : 13.17%