Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 44.88%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 29.11% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 1-0 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.