Liga MX | Gameweek 12
Mar 15, 2025 at 3.05am UK
Estadio Cuauhtemoc

Puebla
0 - 3
Toluca


Quinones (33'), Fedorco (87'), Moyano (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Gallardo (15'), Paulinho (57'), Vega (62' pen.)
Romero (68')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Puebla and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Puebla

All competitions
Last Game: Puebla 1-3 Pumas
Saturday, March 8 at 3am in Liga MX

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 5-2 Necaxa
Saturday, March 8 at 11pm in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 52.25%. A win for Puebla had a probability of 24.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.46%) and 0-2 (8.45%). The likeliest Puebla win was 2-1 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
PueblaDrawToluca
24.49% (-0.038 -0.04)23.26% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)52.25% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Both teams to score 56.93% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.29% (0.0020000000000024 0)43.72% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.9% (0.0020000000000024 0)66.1% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Puebla Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.39% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)31.62% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.98% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)68.02% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.25% (0.021000000000001 0.02)16.75% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.32% (0.033000000000001 0.03)46.68% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Puebla 24.49%
    Toluca 52.25%
    Draw 23.25%
PueblaDrawToluca
2-1 @ 6.27% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-0 @ 6.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-0 @ 3.51% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.41% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.15% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 1.35% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 24.49%
1-1 @ 10.89%
2-2 @ 5.6% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-0 @ 5.3%
3-3 @ 1.28% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.25%
1-2 @ 9.73% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-1 @ 9.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.45% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 5.8% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 5.04% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.34%
1-4 @ 2.59% (0.004 0)
0-4 @ 2.25% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-4 @ 1.49% (0.0010000000000001 0)
1-5 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.18%
Total : 52.25%

Head to Head
Oct 23, 2024 4.05am
Gameweek 13
Toluca
5-0
Puebla
Pereira (15'), Violante (37'), Vega (52'), Paulinho (56', 90+4')
Garcia (29'), Pereira (45')
Jan 27, 2024 1am
Gameweek 3
Puebla
1-1
Toluca
Navarro (23')
Sansores (41'), de Buen (54'), Velasco (62')
Morales (45+3')
Baeza (56'), Ruiz (63'), Pereira (74')
Nov 1, 2023 1am
Gameweek 15
Toluca
0-1
Puebla

Araujo (31'), Ruiz (76'), Baeza (76')
Martinez (78' pen.)
de Buen (45'), Baltazar (89')
Apr 8, 2023 2.05am
Gameweek 14
Puebla
1-2
Toluca
Waller (75')
Lopez (8'), Volpi (15' pen.)
Aug 3, 2022 2am
Gameweek 16
Toluca
1-1
Puebla
Mosquera (83')
Fernandez (17')
rhs 2.0


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