Liga MX | Gameweek 15
Nov 1, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
0 - 1
Puebla


Araujo (31'), Araujo (31'), Baeza (75'), Ruiz (76'), Ruiz (76'), Baeza (76')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Martinez (78' pen., 78' pen.)
de Buen (45'), de Buen (45'), Baltazar (89'), Baltazar (89')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Puebla.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 3-1 Atletico San Luis
Sunday, October 29 at 6pm in Liga MX

Puebla

All competitions
Last Game: Pachuca 1-1 Puebla
Sunday, October 29 at 1am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 55.56%. A win for Puebla had a probability of 23.47% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.34%) and 1-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Puebla win was 1-2 (5.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
TolucaDrawPuebla
55.56% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)20.98% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)23.47% (0.013000000000002 0.01)
Both teams to score 63.84% (0.054000000000002 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.93% (0.064999999999998 0.06)34.07% (-0.064 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.06% (0.073 0.07)55.94% (-0.073 -0.07)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.65% (0.021999999999991 0.02)12.35% (-0.020999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.83% (0.042999999999999 0.04)38.17% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Puebla Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.83% (0.045000000000002 0.05)27.17% (-0.044 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.43% (0.059000000000005 0.06)62.57% (-0.058 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 55.56%
    Puebla 23.47%
    Draw 20.98%
TolucaDrawPuebla
2-1 @ 9.56% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 7.34% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-0 @ 7.02% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-1 @ 6.67% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 5.12% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 4.35% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.49% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 2.68% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 2.27% (0.0049999999999999 0)
5-1 @ 1.46% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 1.12% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-3 @ 0.99% (0.004 0)
5-2 @ 0.95% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 55.56%
1-1 @ 9.14% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.23% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 3.35% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.89% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 20.98%
1-2 @ 5.96%
0-1 @ 4.37% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 2.85% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 2.71% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.59% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 1.24% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.76%
Total : 23.47%

Head to Head
Apr 8, 2023 2.05am
Gameweek 14
Puebla
1-2
Toluca
Waller (75')
Lopez (8'), Volpi (15' pen.)
Aug 3, 2022 2am
Gameweek 16
Toluca
1-1
Puebla
Mosquera (83')
Fernandez (17')
Apr 3, 2022 6pm
Gameweek 12
Toluca
2-1
Puebla
Castaneda (19'), Huerta (45')
Ortega (47'), Baeza (75'), Sierra (78'), Garcia (81'), Sanvezzo (90+5')
Reyes (45+3')
Robles (39'), Barragan (90+5')
Nov 6, 2021 1am
Gameweek 17
Puebla
1-0
Toluca
Tabo (60' pen.)
Mar 21, 2021 6pm
Gameweek 11
Toluca
4-4
Puebla
Estrada (32', 87'), Canelo (53' pen.), Rigonato Rodrigues (77')
Ortega (18'), Baeza (46'), Rigonato Rodrigues (90+3')
Ormeno (57' pen.), Segovia (60'), Aguilar (86'), Alvarez (89')
Gularte (30'), Larcamon (79')
Gularte (51')
rhs 2.0


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!