Liga MX | Gameweek 7
Feb 16, 2025 at 3.10am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
2 - 1
Guadalajara

Vega (34', 34'), Camberos Figueroa (90+1' og., 90+1' og.)
Garcia (90+2'), Garcia (90+2')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Camberos Figueroa (70', 70')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and CD Guadalajara.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Club Leon 3-3 Toluca
Sunday, February 9 at 1am in Liga MX

CD Guadalajara

All competitions
Liga MX
Last Game: Guadalajara 3-0 Cibao
Thursday, February 13 at 1am in CONCACAF Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for CD Guadalajara had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest CD Guadalajara win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawCD Guadalajara
44.14% (0.0039999999999978 0)25.99% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)29.87% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Both teams to score 52.41% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.31% (0.045999999999999 0.05)51.68% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.54% (0.043000000000003 0.04)73.46% (-0.045999999999992 -0.05)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.68% (0.022999999999996 0.02)23.31% (-0.026 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.74% (0.035000000000004 0.04)57.26% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
CD Guadalajara Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.34% (0.027999999999992 0.03)31.66% (-0.031000000000002 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.92% (0.032 0.03)68.07% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 44.13%
    CD Guadalajara 29.87%
    Draw 25.99%
TolucaDrawCD Guadalajara
1-0 @ 10.74% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 7.83% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-1 @ 4.37% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 3.8%
3-2 @ 2.51% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.59% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.38% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 0.92% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2%
Total : 44.13%
1-1 @ 12.36%
0-0 @ 7.38% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.18% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-3 @ 0.96% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.99%
0-1 @ 8.49% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.11% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 4.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.73% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.98% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 1.87%
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 29.87%

Head to Head
Jul 7, 2024 2am
Gameweek 1
Guadalajara
0-0
Toluca
Beltran (45')
Baeza (64'), Pereira (64')
> Preview
May 12, 2024 3.10am
Toluca
0-0
Guadalajara
Ruiz (45'), Meneses (82'), Vega (83')
Garcia (59')
Rangel (36'), Mozo (45'), Castillo (90+5')
May 9, 2024 2.05am
Guadalajara
1-0
Toluca
Alfonso Guzman Guzman (87')
Gutierrez (90+6')

Garcia (83')
Jan 31, 2024 3.05am
Gameweek 4
Guadalajara
3-2
Toluca
Beltran (1'), Perez (43'), Marin (81')
Orozco (14'), Perez (45+5'), Gutierrez (62'), Castillo (65')
Ruiz (7'), Garcia (45+3')
Belmonte (45+4'), Pereira (45+9'), Angulo (71'), Ruiz (83')
Oct 2, 2023 12.20am
Gameweek 10
Toluca
1-1
Guadalajara
Lopez (62')
Raul (42'), Mosquera (80'), Navarro (90+5')
Marin (69')
Sepulveda (14'), Paunovic (15'), Mozo (54'), Raul Rangel Aguilar (74')