Liga MX | Gameweek 5
Feb 2, 2025 at 3.15am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Tigres

Toluca
1 - 0
Tigres

Paulinho (90+1', 90+1')
Pereira (31'), Pereira (31'), Vega (33'), Vega (33'), Romero (37'), Romero (37')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Pizarro (22'), Pizarro (22'), Aquino (45+4'), Aquino (45+4'), Lainez (90+9'), Garcia (90+9'), Lainez (90+9'), Garcia (90+9')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Tigres.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Pumas 1-1 Toluca
Thursday, January 30 at 3.05am in Liga MX

Tigres

All competitions
Last Game: Tigres 4-0 Tijuana
Wednesday, January 29 at 3am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 39.54%. A win for Tigres had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Tigres win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawTigres
39.54% (0.123 0.12)24.99% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)35.47% (-0.071999999999996 -0.07)
Both teams to score 57.67% (0.18 0.18)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.28% (0.238 0.24)45.71% (-0.241 -0.24)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.96% (0.226 0.23)68.03% (-0.229 -0.23)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.03% (0.16600000000001 0.17)22.96% (-0.169 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.25% (0.244 0.24)56.74% (-0.247 -0.25)
Tigres Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.86% (0.069999999999993 0.07)25.14% (-0.072999999999997 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.15% (0.097000000000001 0.1)59.85% (-0.101 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 39.54%
    Tigres 35.47%
    Draw 24.98%
TolucaDrawTigres
2-1 @ 8.63% (0.016 0.02)
1-0 @ 8.49% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-0 @ 6.25% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 4.23% (0.029 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.06% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.92% (0.026 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.56% (0.018 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.13% (0.011 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.08% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 39.54%
1-1 @ 11.72% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-2 @ 5.96% (0.024 0.02)
0-0 @ 5.77% (-0.059 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.35% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.98%
1-2 @ 8.1% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.97% (-0.065 -0.07)
0-2 @ 5.5% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-3 @ 3.73% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 2.74% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.53% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.29% (0.004 0)
2-4 @ 0.95% (0.007 0.01)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 35.47%

Head to Head
Nov 7, 2024 1am
Gameweek 16
Tigres
2-1
Toluca
Gignac (4'), Brunetta (57')
Gallardo (79')
Violante (54')
Mar 2, 2024 11pm
Gameweek 10
Toluca
2-1
Tigres
Vega (54'), Volpi (71' pen.)
Vega (52'), Lopez (90+6')
Herrera (35')
Pizarro (52'), Guzman (56'), Sanchez (68')
Cordova (45+6')
Oct 5, 2023 4am
Gameweek 11
Tigres
2-2
Toluca
Angulo (45+5'), Gignac (76')
Gignac (48'), Carioca (63'), Angulo (68'), Herrera (90+9'), Flores (90+9')
Ruiz (44'), Morales (90+4')
Meneses (24'), Isais (59'), Morales (77'), Ruiz (90+2')
Meneses (45+2')
May 14, 2023 7pm
Toluca
3-1
Tigres
Lopez (26', 53'), Ruiz (45+3')
Cordova (71')
May 12, 2023 4.10am
Tigres
4-1
Toluca
Cordova (14'), Gignac (31' pen.), Vigon (45+5'), Lopez (72')
Fernandez (8')
rhs 2.0


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!