Liga MX | Gameweek 4
Jan 30, 2025 at 3.05am UK
Estadio Olimpico de Universitario

Pumas
1 - 1
Toluca

Bennevendo (61', 61')
Bennevendo (53'), Bennevendo (53'), Carrasquilla (64'), Carrasquilla (64'), Pussetto (74'), Pussetto (74'), Martinez (86'), Martinez (86')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Silva (51' og., 51' og.)
Vega (17'), Vega (17')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Pumas and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Pumas

All competitions
Last Game: Pumas 0-0 Atlas
Sunday, January 26 at 6pm in Liga MX
Next Game: Atletico San Luis vs. Pumas
Monday, February 3 at 1am in Liga MX

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Mazatlan 2-1 Toluca
Saturday, January 25 at 3am in Liga MX
Next Game: Toluca vs. Tigres
Sunday, February 2 at 3.10am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pumas win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 29.17% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pumas win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.

Result
PumasDrawToluca
46.08% (-0.165 -0.16)24.75% (0.126 0.13)29.17% (0.041999999999998 0.04)
Both teams to score 56.02% (-0.396 -0.4)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.22% (-0.532 -0.53)46.78% (0.534 0.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.96% (-0.499 -0.5)69.04% (0.502 0.5)
Pumas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.63% (-0.28700000000001 -0.29)20.37% (0.29 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.22% (-0.46 -0.46)52.78% (0.462 0.46)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.35% (-0.241 -0.24)29.65% (0.243 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.31% (-0.295 -0.3)65.69% (0.297 0.3)
Score Analysis
    Pumas 46.08%
    Toluca 29.17%
    Draw 24.74%
PumasDrawToluca
1-0 @ 9.61% (0.129 0.13)
2-1 @ 9.29% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 7.65% (0.036 0.04)
3-1 @ 4.93% (-0.055 -0.05)
3-0 @ 4.05% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.96% (-0.039 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.61% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 46.08%
1-1 @ 11.68% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 6.04% (0.134 0.13)
2-2 @ 5.65% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.21% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.74%
0-1 @ 7.34% (0.115 0.12)
1-2 @ 7.1% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.46% (0.04 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.88% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.29% (-0.036 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.81% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 29.17%

Head to Head
Oct 6, 2024 2am
Gameweek 11
Toluca
1-1
Pumas
Paulinho (24')
Vega (72'), Ruiz (90+3'), Gallardo (90+3')
Huerta (1')
Magallan (39')
Mar 18, 2024 1am
Gameweek 12
Toluca
3-0
Pumas
Vega (14'), Volpi (36' pen.), Dominguez (77')
Baeza (75')

Lopez (39'), Silva (40'), Suarez (64')
Aug 19, 2023 4am
Gameweek 4
Pumas
1-1
Toluca
Huerta (24')
Huerta (81'), Alcala (90+10'), Gutierrez (90+14'), Trigos (90+5'), Caicedo (90+5')
Dominguez (15')
Baeza (38'), Belmonte (81'), Pinuelas (90+7')
Pinuelas (90+10')
Aug 19, 2023 4am
Gameweek 4
Pumas
1-1
Toluca
Huerta (24')
Huerta (81'), Alcala (90+10'), Gutierrez (90+14'), Trigos (90+5'), Caicedo (90+5')
Dominguez (15')
Baeza (38'), Belmonte (81'), Pinuelas (90+7')
Pinuelas (90+10')
Apr 16, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 15
Pumas
3-1
Toluca
Dinenno (1'), Huerta (38'), Salvio (44' pen.)
Gonzalez (31' pen.)
rhs 2.0


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