Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for Monterrey had a probability of 29.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Monterrey win was 0-1 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.

Result
Toluca	Draw	Monterrey
45.48% ( 0.6)	24.63% ( 0.13)	29.89% ( -0.73)

Both teams to score 56.87% (

-0.86)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.13% (

-0.95)

45.88% (

0.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.81% (

-0.91)

68.19% (

0.91)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.74% (

-0.12)

20.26% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.4% (

-0.2)

52.61% (

0.21)

Monterrey Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.31% (

-0.97)

28.69% (

0.97)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.49% (

-1.23)

64.51% (

1.23)

Score Analysis

Toluca 45.48%

Monterrey 29.89%

Draw 24.62%

Toluca	Draw	Monterrey
1-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.24) 3-1 @ 4.92% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.84% Total : 45.48%	1-1 @ 11.58% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.62%	0-1 @ 7.26% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.63% Total : 29.89%