Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Club America had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Club America win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
Toluca	Draw	Club America
41.75% ( -0.05)	23.99% ( 0.02)	34.25% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 61% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.72% (

-0.08)

41.27% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.32% (

-0.08)

63.67% (

0.07)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.99% (

-0.06)

20% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.8% (

-0.09)

52.19% (

0.09)

Club America Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.24% (

-0.02)

23.75% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.1% (

-0.02)

57.89% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Toluca 41.75%

Club America 34.25%

Draw 23.99%

Toluca	Draw	Club America
2-1 @ 8.84% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.15% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.74% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.91% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( -0) Other @ 3.05% Total : 41.75%	1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.99%	1-2 @ 7.9% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.83% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.79% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.36% 2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0) Other @ 2.98% Total : 34.25%