Liga MX | Gameweek 13
Oct 23, 2024 at 4.05am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
5 - 0
Puebla

Pereira (15', 15'), Violante (37', 37'), Vega (52', 52'), Paulinho (56', 56', 90+4', 90+4')
Garcia (29'), Garcia (29'), Pereira (45'), Pereira (45')
FT(HT: 4-0)
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Puebla.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Queretaro 0-1 Toluca
Saturday, October 19 at 2am in Liga MX

Puebla

All competitions
Last Game: Puebla 1-2 Cruz Azul
Saturday, October 19 at 4.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 72.81%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Puebla had a probability of 11.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 3-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.52%), while for a Puebla win it was 1-2 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawPuebla
72.81% (3.478 3.48)16.18% (-1.15 -1.15)11.01% (-2.33 -2.33)
Both teams to score 53.19% (-3.461 -3.46)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.21% (-0.696 -0.7)34.79% (0.694 0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.25% (-0.783 -0.78)56.75% (0.781 0.78)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.72% (0.59099999999999 0.59)8.28% (-0.593 -0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
71.08% (1.452 1.45)28.91% (-1.456 -1.46)
Puebla Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.99% (-4.175 -4.18)42.01% (4.174 4.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.55% (-3.837 -3.84)78.44% (3.833 3.83)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 72.81%
    Puebla 11.01%
    Draw 16.18%
TolucaDrawPuebla
2-0 @ 10.79% (0.941 0.94)
2-1 @ 9.36% (-0.209 -0.21)
3-0 @ 8.96% (1.013 1.01)
1-0 @ 8.67% (0.535 0.54)
3-1 @ 7.77% (0.047 0.05)
4-0 @ 5.58% (0.768 0.77)
4-1 @ 4.84% (0.162 0.16)
3-2 @ 3.37% (-0.384 -0.38)
5-0 @ 2.78% (0.449 0.45)
5-1 @ 2.41% (0.146 0.15)
4-2 @ 2.1% (-0.175 -0.18)
6-0 @ 1.15% (0.213 0.21)
5-2 @ 1.05% (-0.055 -0.05)
6-1 @ 1% (0.086 0.09)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 72.81%
1-1 @ 7.52% (-0.387 -0.39)
2-2 @ 4.06% (-0.591 -0.59)
0-0 @ 3.48% (0.122 0.12)
3-3 @ 0.98% (-0.241 -0.24)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 16.18%
1-2 @ 3.26% (-0.581 -0.58)
0-1 @ 3.02% (-0.246 -0.25)
0-2 @ 1.31% (-0.277 -0.28)
2-3 @ 1.17% (-0.333 -0.33)
1-3 @ 0.94% (-0.302 -0.3)
Other @ 1.31%
Total : 11.01%

Head to Head
Jan 27, 2024 1am
Gameweek 3
Puebla
1-1
Toluca
Navarro (23')
Sansores (41'), de Buen (54'), Velasco (62')
Morales (45+3')
Baeza (56'), Ruiz (63'), Pereira (74')
Nov 1, 2023 1am
Gameweek 15
Toluca
0-1
Puebla

Araujo (31'), Ruiz (76'), Baeza (76')
Martinez (78' pen.)
de Buen (45'), Baltazar (89')
Apr 8, 2023 2.05am
Gameweek 14
Puebla
1-2
Toluca
Waller (75')
Lopez (8'), Volpi (15' pen.)
Aug 3, 2022 2am
Gameweek 16
Toluca
1-1
Puebla
Mosquera (83')
Fernandez (17')
Apr 3, 2022 6pm
Gameweek 12
Toluca
2-1
Puebla
Castaneda (19'), Huerta (45')
Ortega (47'), Baeza (75'), Sierra (78'), Garcia (81'), Sanvezzo (90+5')
Reyes (45+3')
Robles (39'), Barragan (90+5')