Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Puebla win with a probability of 43.1%. A win for Queretaro had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Puebla win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Queretaro win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Puebla would win this match.