Liga MX | Gameweek 14
Apr 8, 2023 at 2.05am UK
Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Puebla
1 - 2
Toluca

Waller (75')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Lopez (8'), Volpi (15' pen.)
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Puebla and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Puebla

All competitions
Last Game: Juarez 0-2 Puebla
Saturday, April 1 at 4am in Liga MX

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 3-2 Tigres
Sunday, April 2 at 7pm in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.66%. A win for Puebla had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Puebla win was 2-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Toluca in this match.

Result
PueblaDrawToluca
30.79% (-0.107 -0.11)24.55% (-0.044 -0.04)44.66% (0.151 0.15)
Both teams to score 57.61% (0.091999999999999 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.89% (0.145 0.15)45.11% (-0.146 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.54% (0.139 0.14)67.46% (-0.14100000000001 -0.14)
Puebla Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.29% (0.0010000000000048 0)27.7% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.73% (0.0020000000000024 0)63.27% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.69% (0.124 0.12)20.31% (-0.126 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.32% (0.2 0.2)52.68% (-0.203 -0.2)
Score Analysis
    Puebla 30.79%
    Toluca 44.66%
    Draw 24.55%
PueblaDrawToluca
2-1 @ 7.39% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-0 @ 7.22% (-0.045 -0.04)
2-0 @ 4.63% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-1 @ 3.16% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.52% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 1.98% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.01% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 30.79%
1-1 @ 11.51% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.89% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.63% (-0.034999999999999 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.34% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.55%
1-2 @ 9.18% (0.014999999999999 0.01)
0-1 @ 8.97% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 7.15% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.88% (0.027 0.03)
0-3 @ 3.8% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 3.13% (0.018 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.94% (0.018 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.51% (0.014 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.25% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 44.66%

Head to Head
Aug 3, 2022 2am
Toluca
1-1
Puebla
Mosquera (83')
Huerta (24'), Baeza (56')
Sierra (67')
Fernandez (17')
Barragan (32'), Silva (38'), Vazquez (39'), Aguilar (51'), Ferrareis (57')
Apr 3, 2022 6pm
Toluca
2-1
Puebla
Castaneda (19'), Huerta (45')
Ortega (47'), Baeza (75'), Sierra (78'), Garcia (81'), Sanvezzo (90+5')
Reyes (45+3')
Robles (39'), Barragan (90+5')
Nov 6, 2021 1am
Puebla
1-0
Toluca
Tabo (60' pen.)
Martinez (62'), Herrera Rodriguez (85'), Aristeguieta (90+6')

Rodriguez (62')
Mar 21, 2021 6pm
Toluca
4-4
Puebla
Estrada (32', 87'), Canelo (53' pen.), Rigonato Rodrigues (77')
Ortega (18'), Baeza (46'), Rigonato Rodrigues (90+3')
Ormeno (57' pen.), Segovia (60'), Aguilar (86'), Alvarez (89')
Gularte (30'), Larcamon (79')
Gularte (51')
Aug 29, 2020 1.30am
Puebla
4-1
Toluca
Ormeno (31'), Alvarez (40'), Gonzalez (81'), Escoto (90')
Alvarez (40')
Da Silva (20')
Sambueza (35'), da Silva (59')