Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 57.97%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Atletico San Luis had a probability of 20.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for an Atletico San Luis win it was 1-2 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.