Liga MX | Gameweek 8
Feb 20, 2023 at 3.05am UK
Estadio Hidalgo

Pachuca
1 - 2
Toluca

Lopez (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Lopez (11'), Sanvezzo (90+2')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Pachuca and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Pachuca

All competitions
Last Game: Mazatlan 2-3 Pachuca
Friday, February 17 at 3am in Liga MX

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 3-1 Cruz Azul
Sunday, February 12 at 6pm in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 62.57%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 16.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.62%), while for a Toluca win it was 1-2 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.

Result
PachucaDrawToluca
62.57% (0.726 0.73)20.47% (-0.28 -0.28)16.96% (-0.443 -0.44)
Both teams to score 54.39% (0.035000000000004 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.61% (0.498 0.5)41.39% (-0.498 -0.5)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.22% (0.504 0.5)63.78% (-0.503 -0.5)
Pachuca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.34% (0.363 0.36)12.66% (-0.362 -0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.19% (0.747 0.75)38.81% (-0.747 -0.75)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.27% (-0.22 -0.22)37.73% (0.22 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.49% (-0.215 -0.22)74.5% (0.21600000000001 0.22)
Score Analysis
    Pachuca 62.57%
    Toluca 16.96%
    Draw 20.47%
PachucaDrawToluca
2-0 @ 10.2% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.94% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.87% (-0.086 -0.09)
3-0 @ 7.03% (0.132 0.13)
3-1 @ 6.85% (0.089 0.09)
4-0 @ 3.63% (0.117 0.12)
4-1 @ 3.54% (0.094 0.09)
3-2 @ 3.34% (0.023 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.73% (0.036 0.04)
5-0 @ 1.5% (0.068 0.07)
5-1 @ 1.46% (0.058 0.06)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 62.57%
1-1 @ 9.62% (-0.142 -0.14)
2-2 @ 4.85% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 4.77% (-0.109 -0.11)
3-3 @ 1.09% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 20.47%
1-2 @ 4.69% (-0.098 -0.1)
0-1 @ 4.65% (-0.134 -0.13)
0-2 @ 2.27% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-3 @ 1.58% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.52% (-0.042 -0.04)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 16.96%

Head to Head
Oct 31, 2022 1.36am
Pachuca
3-1
Toluca
Alfonso Guzman Guzman (45+3'), Ibanez (51'), Cabral (75' pen.)
Lopez (21')
Lopez (11')
Oct 28, 2022 2.06am
Toluca
1-5
Pachuca
Sierra (78')
Ibarra (8', 36'), Cabral (13'), Isais (41'), Ibanez (53')
de la Fuente (2')
Aug 28, 2022 6pm
Toluca
1-4
Pachuca
Meneses (63')
Angulo (21'), Ortega (29'), Meneses (74'), Saucedo (74'), Sanvezzo (90+7')
Saucedo (90+10')
Hernandez (15', 24'), De la Fuente (73'), Ibanez (90+2')
Hernandez (24'), Murillo (59'), de la Fuente (66'), Chavez (67')
Mar 13, 2022 6pm
Toluca
0-3
Pachuca

Castaneda (75')
Alfonso Guzman Guzman (12'), Ibanez (70'), Moreno (85')
Sep 14, 2021 3am
Pachuca
1-2
Toluca
Alvarez (14')
Angel Herrera (37'), Sanchez (64')
Gonzalez (32'), Rigonato Rodrigues (89')
Ortega (45+2')