Liga MX | Gameweek 11
Aug 28, 2022 at 6pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
1 - 4
Pachuca

Meneses (63')
Angulo (21'), Ortega (29'), Meneses (74'), Saucedo (74'), Sanvezzo (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Hernandez (15', 24'), de la Fuente (73'), Ibanez (90+2')
Hernandez (24'), Murillo (59'), de la Fuente (66'), Chavez (67')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Pachuca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

Last Six:
Last Game: Atletico San Luis 1-0 Toluca
Sunday, August 21 at 11pm in Liga MX

Pachuca

Last Six:
Last Game: Pachuca 3-1 Atlas
Friday, August 26 at 1.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 37.63%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 36.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (9.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pachuca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawPachuca
36.08% (0.249 0.25)26.29% (0.026 0.03)37.63% (-0.277 -0.28)
Both teams to score 53.23% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.56% (-0.102 -0.1)51.43% (0.099000000000004 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.75% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)73.24% (0.084000000000003 0.08)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.52% (0.099000000000004 0.1)27.48% (-0.102 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.02% (0.129 0.13)62.98% (-0.133 -0.13)
Pachuca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.41% (-0.205 -0.2)26.59% (0.201 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.19% (-0.271 -0.27)61.81% (0.267 0.27)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 36.08%
    Pachuca 37.63%
    Draw 26.29%
TolucaDrawPachuca
1-0 @ 9.44% (0.064 0.06)
2-1 @ 8.07% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
2-0 @ 6.1% (0.058 0.06)
3-1 @ 3.48% (0.023 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.62% (0.032 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.3% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.12% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 36.08%
1-1 @ 12.5% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.31% (0.029000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.35% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.02% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.29%
0-1 @ 9.68% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
1-2 @ 8.28% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-2 @ 6.41% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-3 @ 3.66% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-3 @ 2.83% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.36% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.21% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-4 @ 0.94% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 37.63%

Head to Head
Mar 13, 2022 6pm
Toluca
0-3
Pachuca

Castaneda (75')
Alfonso Guzman Guzman (12'), Ibanez (70'), Moreno (85')
Sep 14, 2021 3am
Pachuca
1-2
Toluca
Alvarez (14')
Angel Herrera (37'), Sanchez (64')
Gonzalez (32'), Rigonato Rodrigues (89')
Ortega (45+2')
Mar 14, 2021 6pm
Toluca
0-2
Pachuca

Barbieri (44'), Rigonato Rodrigues (56'), Torres (90+1')
Barbieri (72')
De la Rosa (83'), Chavez (90+2' pen.)
Garcia (8'), Pardo (23')
Sep 25, 2020 3am
Pachuca
0-0
Toluca

Alfonso Guzman Guzman (51')

Medina (6'), Castaneda (81')
Mar 22, 2020 1am
Pachuca
P-P
Toluca
rhs 2.0


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