Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pachuca would win this match.
