Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 65.71%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 14.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.51%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (4.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pachuca would win this match.
0.14) 
-0.21) 
