Liga MX | 1st Leg
Oct 28, 2022 at 2.06am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
1 - 5
Pachuca

Sierra (78')
FT(HT: 0-4)
Ibarra (8', 36'), Cabral (13'), Isais (41'), Ibanez (53')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Pachuca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Winner Semi-final 1

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:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Winner Semi-final 2

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:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.12%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Toluca win was 2-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pachuca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawPachuca
33.9% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)24.38% (-0.004999999999999 -0)41.72% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Both teams to score 59.5% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.8% (0.013999999999996 0.01)43.19% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.41% (0.015000000000001 0.02)65.59% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.14% (0.00099999999999056 0)24.85% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.54% (0.0020000000000024 0)59.45% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Pachuca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.17% (0.012 0.01)20.82% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.5% (0.018999999999998 0.02)53.49% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 33.9%
    Pachuca 41.72%
    Draw 24.37%
TolucaDrawPachuca
2-1 @ 7.87% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 7.21% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 5.02% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 3.65%
3-2 @ 2.87% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 2.33% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.27%
4-2 @ 1%
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 33.9%
1-1 @ 11.3%
2-2 @ 6.17% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 5.18% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 24.37%
1-2 @ 8.87% (0.0019999999999989 0)
0-1 @ 8.12% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
0-2 @ 6.37% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 4.64% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-3 @ 3.33% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 3.23% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-4 @ 1.82% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 1.31% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 41.72%

Form Guide
Sorry, no data available for Winner Semi-final 1