Liga MX | 1st Leg
Oct 14, 2022 at 1.06am UK
Estadio Nuevo Corona

Toluca
4 - 3
Santos Laguna

Gonzalez (4'), Sanvezzo (6', 73'), Volpi (90+2' pen.)
FT(HT: 2-2)
Gorriaran (30' pen.), Preciado (38'), Aguirre (49')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Santos Laguna.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 3-0 Juarez
Sunday, October 9 at 6pm in Liga MX

Santos Laguna

All competitions
Last Game: Santos Laguna 3-0 Mazatlan
Monday, October 3 at 12.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Santos Laguna win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawSantos Laguna
44.19% (0.404 0.4)23.26% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)32.54% (-0.386 -0.39)
Both teams to score 63.07% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.69% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)38.31% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.41% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)60.59% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.25% (0.145 0.14)17.75% (-0.148 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.56% (0.253 0.25)48.43% (-0.256 -0.26)
Santos Laguna Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.68% (-0.239 -0.24)23.31% (0.235 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.73% (-0.347 -0.35)57.26% (0.343 0.34)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 44.19%
    Santos Laguna 32.54%
    Draw 23.26%
TolucaDrawSantos Laguna
2-1 @ 9.01% (0.041 0.04)
1-0 @ 7.15% (0.048 0.05)
2-0 @ 6.18% (0.071 0.07)
3-1 @ 5.19% (0.048 0.05)
3-2 @ 3.78% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.56% (0.058 0.06)
4-1 @ 2.24% (0.032 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.63% (0.012 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.54% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 3.9%
Total : 44.19%
1-1 @ 10.41% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.56% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.14% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.83% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 23.26%
1-2 @ 7.58% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-1 @ 6.03% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
0-2 @ 4.39% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
1-3 @ 3.68% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-3 @ 3.18% (-0.03 -0.03)
0-3 @ 2.13% (-0.041 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.34% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-4 @ 1.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 32.54%

Head to Head
Jul 23, 2022 11pm
Toluca
2-1
Santos Laguna
Fernandez (11' pen.), Sierra (25')
Ruiz (45'), Angulo (86')
Rodriguez (75')
Rodriguez (31'), Doria (88'), (90+7')
Jan 16, 2022 6pm
Toluca
3-1
Santos Laguna
Alvarez (41'), Fernandez (56'), Rigonato Rodrigues (80')
Rodriguez (21'), Ortega (37'), Garcia (76'), Fernandez (79')
Preciado (22')
Doria (84')
Oct 25, 2021 1.06am
Santos Laguna
2-2
Toluca
Da Cruz (33'), Aguirre (90+6')
Da Cruz (44'), Preciado (49')
Chavez (56'), Canelo (76')
Gutierrez (26'), Rigonato Rodrigues (34'), Vanegas (47'), Sartiaguin (90+4')
Apr 19, 2021 1am
Santos Laguna
3-1
Toluca
Aguirre (4', 17'), Otero (53')
Isijara (30')
Canelo (68')
Yrizar (45+1'), Barbieri (45+3'), Triverio (80'), Baeza (90+3')
Rigonato Rodrigues (87')
Sep 20, 2020 6pm
Toluca
1-2
Santos Laguna
Estrada (90+1')
Mora (45'), Sambueza (68'), Sartiaguin (88')
Sandoval (40'), Rivero (52')