Liga MX | Gameweek 15
Sep 17, 2022 at 3am UK
Estadio de Mazatlan

Mazatlan
1 - 1
Toluca

Colula (23')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sanvezzo (55')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Mazatlan and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mazatlan

Last Six:
Last Game: Cruz Azul 2-0 Mazatlan
Sunday, September 11 at 10pm in Liga MX

Toluca

Last Six:
Last Game: Toluca 2-2 Pumas
Sunday, September 11 at 3.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mazatlan win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 31.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mazatlan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.

Result
MazatlanDrawToluca
42.63% (0.191 0.19)25.85% (0.091999999999999 0.09)31.52% (-0.282 -0.28)
Both teams to score 53.63% (-0.414 -0.41)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.54% (-0.487 -0.49)50.46% (0.487 0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.61% (-0.432 -0.43)72.39% (0.432 0.43)
Mazatlan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.49% (-0.11799999999999 -0.12)23.51% (0.117 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.45% (-0.172 -0.17)57.55% (0.173 0.17)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.11% (-0.434 -0.43)29.89% (0.434 0.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.02% (-0.526 -0.53)65.98% (0.527 0.53)
Score Analysis
    Mazatlan 42.63%
    Toluca 31.52%
    Draw 25.84%
MazatlanDrawToluca
1-0 @ 10.17% (0.17 0.17)
2-1 @ 8.89% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.36% (0.093000000000001 0.09)
3-1 @ 4.29% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.55% (0.032 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.59% (-0.039 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.55% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.29% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.94% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 42.63%
1-1 @ 12.28% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 7.03% (0.137 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.37% (-0.062 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.84%
0-1 @ 8.49% (0.065 0.06)
1-2 @ 7.42% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-2 @ 5.13% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.99% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.16% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-3 @ 2.06% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-4 @ 0.9% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 31.52%

Head to Head
Jan 22, 2022 3am
Mazatlan
1-2
Toluca
Bello (29')
Moreno (56'), Vidrio (90+5')
Sosa (73')
Canelo (69'), Fernandez (80' pen.)
Baeza (3'), Ortega (17')
Aug 17, 2021 11pm
Toluca
2-2
Mazatlan
Gonzalez (9'), Sambueza (38' pen.)
Barbieri (45+3')
Sanvezzo (32'), Emilio Sanchez Castillo (44')
Freitas (58'), Diaz (90+3')
Feb 7, 2021 6pm
Toluca
4-1
Mazatlan
Canelo (19', 30', 87'), Sambueza (35')
Baeza (12')
Sanvezzo (67')
Sanvezzo (12'), Diaz (20'), Vargas (29'), Jimenez (62')
Aug 8, 2020 3.30am
Mazatlan
2-1
Toluca
Aristeguieta (14', 29')
Ortiz (40')
Estrada (27')
Lopez (88'), Mora (88')