Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mazatlan win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 31.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mazatlan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.