Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 49.1%. A win for Mazatlan had a probability of 26.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.48%). The likeliest Mazatlan win was 1-0 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pachuca would win this match.