Liga MX | Gameweek 5
Feb 6, 2023 at 1.10am UK
Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Monterrey
2 - 1
Toluca

Gonzalez (17', 31')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Araujo (62')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Monterrey and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Monterrey

All competitions
Liga MX
Last Game: Puebla 1-2 Monterrey
Saturday, January 28 at 1.05am in Liga MX

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Atlas 0-0 Toluca
Thursday, February 2 at 2.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monterrey win with a probability of 62.86%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 15.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Monterrey win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.08%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monterrey would win this match.

Result
MonterreyDrawToluca
62.86% (-0.634 -0.63)21.76% (0.463 0.46)15.38% (0.174 0.17)
Both teams to score 46.78% (-0.989 -0.99)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.25% (-1.549 -1.55)49.75% (1.552 1.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.24% (-1.403 -1.4)71.76% (1.405 1.41)
Monterrey Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.76% (-0.70999999999999 -0.71)15.24% (0.712 0.71)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.09% (-1.356 -1.36)43.91% (1.359 1.36)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.2% (-0.698 -0.7)44.8% (0.701 0.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.22% (-0.566 -0.57)80.78% (0.569 0.57)
Score Analysis
    Monterrey 62.86%
    Toluca 15.38%
    Draw 21.75%
MonterreyDrawToluca
1-0 @ 12.84% (0.48 0.48)
2-0 @ 12.08% (0.16 0.16)
2-1 @ 9.7% (-0.058999999999999 -0.06)
3-0 @ 7.58% (-0.09 -0.09)
3-1 @ 6.08% (-0.193 -0.19)
4-0 @ 3.56% (-0.134 -0.13)
4-1 @ 2.86% (-0.166 -0.17)
3-2 @ 2.44% (-0.127 -0.13)
5-0 @ 1.34% (-0.086 -0.09)
4-2 @ 1.15% (-0.09 -0.09)
5-1 @ 1.08% (-0.091 -0.09)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 62.86%
1-1 @ 10.31% (0.2 0.2)
0-0 @ 6.83% (0.421 0.42)
2-2 @ 3.9% (-0.1 -0.1)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 21.75%
0-1 @ 5.48% (0.237 0.24)
1-2 @ 4.14% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 2.2% (0.054 0.05)
1-3 @ 1.11% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.04% (-0.048 -0.05)
Other @ 1.41%
Total : 15.38%

Head to Head
Aug 18, 2022 1am
Toluca
1-1
Monterrey
Fernandez (27')
Fernandez (38'), Ortega (59')
Aguirre (71')
Vegas (23'), Reyes (31'), Meza (73')
Apr 7, 2022 1am
Toluca
2-2
Monterrey
Fernandez (30', 90+10' pen.)
Huerta (12'), Ortega (42'), Rodriguez (89')
Meza (13' pen.), Campbell (36')
Vegas (29'), Janssen (45+2'), Aguirre (90+6'), Montes (90+9')
Sep 23, 2021 1.06am
Monterrey
2-0
Toluca
Gallardo (41'), Funes Mori (74')
Andrada (77'), Vegas (89')

Cristante (33'), Ortega (40'), Rigonato Rodrigues (86'), Pardo (90+3'), Lopez (90+4')
Apr 11, 2021 6pm
Toluca
1-2
Monterrey
Torres (71')
Torres (38'), Canelo (66')
Vegas (51'), Meza (60')
Jul 29, 2020 1am
Monterrey
3-1
Toluca
Funes Mori (20', 85'), Rodriguez (29')
Pabon (3'), Gallardo (32'), Medina (35'), Layun (76')
Medina (46')
Sauro (19'), Cisneros (75')