Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CD Guadalajara win with a probability of 57.18%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 19.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a CD Guadalajara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.