Liga MX | Gameweek 13
Apr 2, 2023 at 7pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Díez
Tigres

Toluca
3 - 2
Tigres

Lichnovsky (27' og.), Gonzalez (45+1', 69')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Gignac (76'), Lopez (90' pen.)
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Tigres.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Tijuana 3-3 Toluca
Saturday, March 18 at 3.05am in Liga MX

Tigres

All competitions
Last Game: Tigres 0-1 Monterrey
Sunday, March 19 at 1.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.

Result
TolucaDrawTigres
33.95% (0.473 0.47)25.8% (0.161 0.16)40.25% (-0.633 -0.63)
Both teams to score 54.57% (-0.422 -0.42)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.41% (-0.597 -0.6)49.58% (0.597 0.6)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.39% (-0.537 -0.54)71.61% (0.538 0.54)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.12% (0.0049999999999955 0)27.88% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.5% (0.0039999999999978 0)63.49% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Tigres Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.67% (-0.589 -0.59)24.32% (0.589 0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.29% (-0.84200000000001 -0.84)58.71% (0.842 0.84)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 33.95%
    Tigres 40.25%
    Draw 25.79%
TolucaDrawTigres
1-0 @ 8.66% (0.21 0.21)
2-1 @ 7.82% (0.058000000000001 0.06)
2-0 @ 5.53% (0.135 0.14)
3-1 @ 3.33% (0.025 0.03)
3-0 @ 2.36% (0.057 0.06)
3-2 @ 2.35% (-0.023 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.06% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 33.95%
1-1 @ 12.24% (0.09 0.09)
0-0 @ 6.78% (0.163 0.16)
2-2 @ 5.53% (-0.054 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.11% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.79%
0-1 @ 9.59% (0.068 0.07)
1-2 @ 8.66% (-0.086 -0.09)
0-2 @ 6.78% (-0.068 -0.07)
1-3 @ 4.08% (-0.112 -0.11)
0-3 @ 3.19% (-0.088 -0.09)
2-3 @ 2.61% (-0.071 -0.07)
1-4 @ 1.44% (-0.065 -0.07)
0-4 @ 1.13% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-4 @ 0.92% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 40.25%

Head to Head
Sep 8, 2022 1am
Tigres
3-1
Toluca
Cordova (41'), Gignac (62'), Thauvin (80')
Quinones (13')
Meneses (68')
Apr 17, 2022 1am
Tigres
3-0
Toluca
Vigon (59'), Cordova (67'), Gignac (71')
Pizarro (86')

Sierra (75')
Aug 1, 2021 6pm
Toluca
3-1
Tigres
Lopez (33'), Canelo (83'), Samudio (90+6')
Barbieri (90+10')
Pizarro (27')
Pizarro (60'), Vigon (61')
Pizarro (64')
Mar 3, 2021 1am
Tigres
0-1
Toluca

Salcedo (2'), Quinones (7'), Pizarro (80')
Canelo (55')
Baeza (40')
Nov 23, 2020 1am
Tigres
2-1
Toluca
Gignac (35', 38')
Gignac (39'), Pizarro (41'), Ayala (54'), Salcedo (90+1')
Ayala (71')
Ayala (52' og.)
Gonzalez (37'), Mora (51'), Maidana (83')
rhs 2.0


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!