Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 64.62%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Mazatlan had a probability of 15.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.22%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Mazatlan win it was 0-1 (4.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
Toluca	Draw	Mazatlan
64.62% ( -0.15)	19.93% ( 0.06)	15.45% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 52.81% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.22% (

-0.07)

41.78% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.82% (

-0.07)

64.18% (

0.07)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.8% (

-0.06)

12.19% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.14% (

-0.14)

37.85% (

0.14)

Mazatlan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.14% (

0.08)

39.85% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.48% (

0.07)

76.51% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Toluca 64.61%

Mazatlan 15.45%

Draw 19.93%

Toluca	Draw	Mazatlan
2-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 10.22% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.94% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.97% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.65% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.19% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.68% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.55% Total : 64.61%	1-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.93%	0-1 @ 4.47% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.87% Total : 15.45%