Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 65.92%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Club Leon had a probability of 15.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 1-0 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.46%), while for a Club Leon win it was 1-2 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.