Liga MX | Gameweek 9
Feb 27, 2025 at 3am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
5 - 0
Queretaro

Garcia (25', 25'), Paulinho (31', 31'), Violante (37', 37'), Vega (43', 43'), Morales (89', 89')
FT(HT: 8-0)

Fernando Gonzalez Garcia (40'), Fernando Gonzalez Garcia (40'), Gomez (58'), Gomez (58'), Venegas (82'), Venegas (82')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Queretaro.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Juarez 0-4 Toluca
Saturday, February 22 at 11pm in Liga MX

Queretaro

All competitions
Last Game: Cruz Azul 1-0 Queretaro
Monday, February 24 at 1.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 71.65%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Queretaro had a probability of 10.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.03%) and 3-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.33%), while for a Queretaro win it was 0-1 (3.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawQueretaro
71.65% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)17.51% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)10.84% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
Both teams to score 47.48% (0.058 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.19% (0.057000000000002 0.06)41.81% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.79% (0.055999999999997 0.06)64.21% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.65% (0.013999999999996 0.01)10.34% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.18% (0.032000000000011 0.03)33.81% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Queretaro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.96% (0.056000000000004 0.06)47.04% (-0.055 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.48% (0.041 0.04)82.52% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 71.64%
    Queretaro 10.84%
    Draw 17.51%
TolucaDrawQueretaro
2-0 @ 12.52% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-0 @ 11.03% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
3-0 @ 9.47% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 7.14% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 5.37% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-1 @ 4.05% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.69% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
5-0 @ 2.44% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-1 @ 1.84% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.53% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
6-0 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.19%
Total : 71.64%
1-1 @ 8.33% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 4.87% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.56% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 17.51%
0-1 @ 3.67% (-0.004 -0)
1-2 @ 3.14% (0.004 0)
0-2 @ 1.38% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 10.84%

Head to Head
Oct 19, 2024 2am
Gameweek 12
Queretaro
0-1
Toluca

Hernandez (55'), Nicolas Ortiz (84')
Paulinho (45+3')
Garcia (59')
Jan 13, 2024 1am
Gameweek 1
Queretaro
2-2
Toluca
Gularte (7'), Nicolas Ortiz (56')
Barbieri (33'), Nicolas Ortiz (45+5'), Allison (87')
Lopez (66'), Pereira (90+6')
Lopez (73'), Araujo (73')
Oct 8, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 12
Toluca
3-1
Queretaro
Lopez (2', 66'), Volpi (58' pen.)
Sanvezzo (40')
Gularte (36'), Barrera (61'), Escamilla (76')
Mar 6, 2023 1.05am
Gameweek 10
Queretaro
1-0
Toluca
Torres (31')
Oct 2, 2022 6pm
Gameweek 17
Toluca
4-1
Queretaro
Fernandez (29' pen.), Navarro (45+2'), Sanvezzo (57' pen., 77')
Nahuelpan (63')