Liga MX | Gameweek 11
Mar 8, 2025 at 11pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
5 - 2
Necaxa

Paulinho (45+9'), Briseno (53'), Vega (56', 76', 84')
Paulinho (28'), Herrera (39'), Ruiz (83'), Pereira (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Cambindo (11'), Paradela (44')
Lara (35'), Cambindo (38'), Perez (78'), Rosero (83'), Unsain (90+4')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Necaxa.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: America 3-0 Toluca
Saturday, March 1 at 11pm in Liga MX

Necaxa

All competitions
Last Game: Necaxa 1-2 Tigres
Sunday, March 2 at 1am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 66.52%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Necaxa had a probability of 14.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.7%), while for a Necaxa win it was 1-2 (4.19%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawNecaxa
66.52% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)18.74% (0.0040000000000013 0)14.75% (0.02 0.02)
Both teams to score 55.3% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.33% (0.021000000000001 0.02)37.67% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.09% (0.024000000000001 0.02)59.91% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.49%10.51%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)34.18% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Necaxa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.79% (0.038000000000004 0.04)38.21% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.03% (0.036000000000001 0.04)74.97% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 66.52%
    Necaxa 14.75%
    Draw 18.74%
TolucaDrawNecaxa
2-0 @ 10.19% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.8%
1-0 @ 9.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.65% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.36% (0.00099999999999945 0)
4-0 @ 4.31% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 4.15%
3-2 @ 3.54% (0.0029999999999997 0)
4-2 @ 2% (0.0029999999999999 0)
5-0 @ 1.94% (-0.002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.87%
Other @ 4.65%
Total : 66.52%
1-1 @ 8.7%
2-2 @ 4.72% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 4.01% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-3 @ 1.14% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 18.74%
1-2 @ 4.19% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-1 @ 3.86%
0-2 @ 1.86% (0.002 0)
2-3 @ 1.51% (0.004 0)
1-3 @ 1.34% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 14.75%

Head to Head
Oct 28, 2024 12am
Gameweek 14
Necaxa
1-3
Toluca
Palavecino (90+5')
Palavecino (77')
Angulo (19', 25', 66')
Feb 10, 2024 11pm
Gameweek 6
Necaxa
3-3
Toluca
Cambindo (27', 89'), Garnica (43')
Fentanes (31'), Paradela (73')
Meneses (6'), Belmonte (68'), Unsain (77' og.)
Pereira (30'), Vega (58')
Jul 2, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 1
Toluca
0-0
Necaxa
Baeza (36'), Morales (70')
Gonzalez (10'), Poggi (52'), Formiliano (64'), Esquivel (64')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 17
Toluca
3-0
Necaxa
Fernandez (31' pen.), Gonzalez (52'), Volpi (71' pen.)
Jul 2, 2022 11pm
Gameweek 1
Necaxa
1-3
Toluca
Formiliano (39')
Araos (54'), Mendez (68'), Villalpando (74')
Fernandez (3'), Huerta (24'), Sanvezzo (69' pen.)
Fernandez (25'), Volpi (32'), Baeza (49')