Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Necaxa win with a probability of 51.49%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 23.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Necaxa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.