Liga MX Gameweek 17
Toluca
Apr 30, 2023 7.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
Necaxa
  • Leonardo Fernandez 31' goal
  • Carlos Gonzalez 52' goal
  • Tiago Volpi 71' goal

Toluca vs Necaxa - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Apr 23, 2023 7.00pm
Toluca 1 - 1 Juarez
Goals scored
34
Top scorer
Carlos Gonzalez

Necaxa

All competitions
Last game
Apr 22, 2023 2.05am
Necaxa 1 - 3 Atlas
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Edgar Mendez

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Necaxa had a probability of 18.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.68%) and 1-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Necaxa win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result

Toluca 59.9% ▼ (-0.52)
Draw 21.24% ▲ (+0.09)
Necaxa 18.86% ▲ (+0.44)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.54% ▲ (+0.51)

Goals

Over 2.5 58.31% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 2.5 41.69% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 3.5 35.91% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 3.5 64.09% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 4.5 18.95% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 4.5 81.05% ▼ (-0.22)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 86.47% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 0.5 13.53% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 1.5 59.4% ▼ (-0.14)
Under 1.5 40.6% ▲ (+0.14)

Necaxa Goals

Over 0.5 64.23% ▲ (+0.64)
Under 0.5 35.76% ▼ (-0.64)
Over 1.5 27.46% ▲ (+0.65)
Under 1.5 72.54% ▼ (-0.65)

Score analysis

Toluca 59.9%
Draw 21.24%
Necaxa 18.86%
Toluca
2-1 @ 9.95% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 9.68% ▼ (-0.18)
1-0 @ 9.68% ▼ (-0.15)
3-1 @ 6.64% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 6.45% ▼ (-0.13)
3-2 @ 3.41% ▲ (+0.05)
4-1 @ 3.32% ▼ (-0.02)
4-0 @ 3.23% ▼ (-0.08)
4-2 @ 1.71% ▲ (+0.03)
5-1 @ 1.33% ▼ (-0.02)
5-0 @ 1.29% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 59.9%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.95% ▲ (+0.03)
2-2 @ 5.12% ▲ (+0.09)
0-0 @ 4.84% ▼ (-0.07)
3-3 @ 1.17% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 21.24%
Necaxa
1-2 @ 5.12% ▲ (+0.10)
0-1 @ 4.98% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 2.56% ▲ (+0.06)
1-3 @ 1.75% ▲ (+0.07)
2-3 @ 1.75% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 18.86%

Head to Head

Liga MX Gameweek 1
Necaxa
Jul 2, 2022 11.00pm
1
3
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
Toluca
  • Fabricio Formiliano 39' goal
  • Angelo Araos 54' yellowcard
  • Edgar Mendez 68' yellowcard
  • Dieter Villalpando 74' yellowcard
  • goal Leonardo Fernandez 3'
  • goal Valber Huerta 24'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Fernandez 25'
  • yellowcard Tiago Volpi 32'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 49'
  • goal Camilo Sanvezzo 69'
Liga MX Gameweek 9
Necaxa
Mar 5, 2022 1.00am
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT
Toluca
  • Fernando Madrigal 31' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo Aguirre 79' yellowcard
  • goal Camilo Sanvezzo 2'
  • yellowcard Alexis Canelo 51'
  • yellowcard Alan Rodriguez 74'
Liga MX Gameweek 14
Toluca
Oct 21, 2021 1.00am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Necaxa
  • Haret Ortega 36' redcard
  • Oscar Vanegas 56' goal
  • Oscar Vanegas 67' yellowcard
  • Rubens Sambueza 90'+5' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Julio Gonzalez 6'
  • yellowcard Maximiliano Salas 24'
  • yellowcard Alan Medina 45'
  • goal Alejandro Zendejas 53'
Liga MX Gameweek 3
Toluca
Jan 24, 2021 6.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
Necaxa
  • Michael Estrada 27' goal
  • Rubens Sambueza 33' yellowcard
  • Diego Rigonato Rodrigues 55' yellowcard
  • Joao Plata 90'+4' goal
  • yellowcard Idekel Dominguez 26'
  • yellowcard David Cabrera 30'
  • yellowcard Mario de Luna 46'
  • yellowcard Julio Gonzalez 70'
  • redcard Ian Gonzalez 74'
Liga MX Gameweek 16
Necaxa
Oct 31, 2020 1.30am
3
2
HT : 1 2
FT
Toluca
  • Lucas Passerini 31' goal
  • Alejandro Zendejas 56' yellowcard
  • Unai Bilbao 61' goal
  • Julio Gonzalez 84' yellowcard
  • Jairo Gonzalez 85' yellowcard
  • Alejandro Zendejas 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Haret Ortega 14'
  • goal Haret Ortega 18'
  • goal David Cabrera 18' (OG)
  • yellowcard Michael Estrada 34'
  • yellowcard Michael Estrada 36'
  • yellowcard Rubens Sambueza 45'+4'
  • yellowcard William da Silva 53'
  • goal Rubens Sambueza 72'
  • yellowcard Alexis Canelo 84'
Liga MX Gameweek 2
Toluca
Jan 19, 2020 6.00pm
2
3
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
Necaxa
  • Leonardo Fernandez 38' goal
  • Luis Hernandez 45' goal
  • goal Mauro Quiroga 22'
  • yellowcard Jonathan Gonzalez 30'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Noya 63'
  • goal Jose Doldan 80'
  • yellowcard Hugo Gonzalez 90'
  • goal Mauro Quiroga 92'

Form Data

Toluca 1 - 1 Juarez
Pumas 3 - 1 Toluca
Puebla 1 - 2 Toluca
Toluca 3 - 2 Tigres
Tijuana 3 - 3 Toluca
Toluca 4 - 1 Mazatlan
Necaxa 1 - 3 Atlas
Necaxa 1 - 1 Puebla
Guadalajara 1 - 0 Necaxa
Necaxa 0 - 0 Santos Laguna
Mazatlan 0 - 1 Necaxa
Juarez 1 - 1 Necaxa