Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 37.92%. A win for Pumas had a probability of 36.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Pumas win was 1-0 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.