Liga MX | Gameweek 15
Apr 16, 2023 at 7pm UK
Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Pumas
3 - 1
Toluca

Dinenno (1'), Huerta (38'), Salvio (44' pen.)
FT(HT: 3-1)
Gonzalez (31' pen.)
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Pumas and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Pumas

All competitions
Last Game: Pumas 3-1 Atletico San Luis
Sunday, April 9 at 7pm in Liga MX

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Puebla 1-2 Toluca
Saturday, April 8 at 2.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 37.92%. A win for Pumas had a probability of 36.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Pumas win was 1-0 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.

Result
PumasDrawToluca
36.72% (0.207 0.21)25.37% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)37.92% (-0.19 -0.19)
Both teams to score 56.44% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.65% (0.077999999999996 0.08)47.35% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.43% (0.071999999999999 0.07)69.57% (-0.071000000000012 -0.07)
Pumas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.8% (0.15299999999999 0.15)25.2% (-0.151 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.07% (0.207 0.21)59.93% (-0.20800000000001 -0.21)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.46% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)24.54% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.98% (-0.095000000000006 -0.1)59.02% (0.095000000000006 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Pumas 36.72%
    Toluca 37.92%
    Draw 25.36%
PumasDrawToluca
1-0 @ 8.53% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.25% (0.029 0.03)
2-0 @ 5.88% (0.032 0.03)
3-1 @ 3.79% (0.03 0.03)
3-0 @ 2.7% (0.026 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.66% (0.015 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.31% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 0.93% (0.013 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.92% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.75%
Total : 36.72%
1-1 @ 11.97% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.19% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.8% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.25% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.36%
0-1 @ 8.69% (-0.045 -0.04)
1-2 @ 8.41% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-2 @ 6.1% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.94% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.86% (-0.026 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.71% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 1.38% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-4 @ 0.95% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 37.92%

Head to Head
Sep 11, 2022 3.05am
Toluca
2-2
Pumas
Meneses (65', 77')
Dinenno (36'), Jose Gonzalez (90+6')
Jan 11, 2022 3am
Pumas
5-0
Toluca
Rogerio (31', 64'), Diogo (61'), Ruvalcaba (69'), Meritao (81')
Diogo (59'), Ortiz (75'), Talavera (77')

Rodriguez (38'), Sartiaguin (53')
Nov 21, 2021 11pm
Toluca
1-2
Pumas
Ortega (62' pen.)
Sambueza (2'), Estrada (23'), Garcia (83'), Chavez (90+6')
Lopez (16'), Dinenno (50')
Diogo (21'), Lopez (31'), Lira (34'), Dinenno (82'), Ortiz (85'), Corozo (90+8')
Aug 29, 2021 6pm
Toluca
2-1
Pumas
Sambueza (20'), Canelo (70')
Lopez (15'), Rigonato Rodrigues (68'), Canelo (72'), Garcia (83')
Dinenno (8' pen.)
Garcia Hernandez (56'), Lopez (56')
Mozo (15'), Garcia Hernandez (75'), Dinenno (90+7')
Feb 14, 2021 6pm
Toluca
1-0
Pumas
Canelo (88')
Barbieri (46')

Alvarez (41'), Torres (55'), Vasquez (90+2')