Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Necaxa win with a probability of 50.06%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 24.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Necaxa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Santos Laguna win it was 0-1 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Necaxa would win this match.