Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Necaxa win with a probability of 42.26%. A win for Mazatlan had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Necaxa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Mazatlan win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Necaxa would win this match.