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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Newport County |
39.49% ( 0.01) | 28.62% ( -0) | 31.88% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 45.44% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.09% ( 0.01) | 60.9% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.07% ( 0.01) | 80.92% ( -0.01) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.94% ( 0.01) | 30.06% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.81% ( 0.02) | 66.19% ( -0.02) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.97% ( -0.01) | 35.03% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.22% ( -0.01) | 71.77% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 12.65% 2-1 @ 7.98% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.61% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.2% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.05% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.68% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 1.45% Total : 39.49% | 1-1 @ 13.27% 0-0 @ 10.52% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0) Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.61% | 0-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.96% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.79% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.44% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.03% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0) Other @ 2.15% Total : 31.87% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 39 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 79 | 37 | 42 | 73 |
2 | Stockport CountyStockport | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 40 | 35 | 71 |
3 | Wrexham | 39 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 70 | 48 | 22 | 70 |
4 | MK Dons | 40 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 63 | 54 | 9 | 67 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 39 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 67 | 55 | 12 | 65 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 64 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 38 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 59 |
8 | Gillingham | 40 | 17 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 59 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 40 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 58 |
10 | Walsall | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 57 | 52 | 5 | 56 |
11 | Newport CountyNewport | 39 | 16 | 7 | 16 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 55 |
12 | Morecambe | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 54 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 54 |
14 | Notts County | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 76 | 74 | 2 | 51 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 40 | 15 | 5 | 20 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 50 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 39 | 14 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 57 | -5 | 50 |
17 | Bradford CityBradford | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 50 |
18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 51 | 62 | -11 | 49 |
19 | Salford City | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 60 | 73 | -13 | 47 |
20 | Swindon TownSwindon | 39 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 65 | 70 | -5 | 44 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 39 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 34 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 40 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 45 | 71 | -26 | 33 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 39 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
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