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Championship header 2

League Two

Carlisle United
League Two | Gameweek 27
Jan 14, 2023 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Newport County

Carlisle
2 - 0
Newport

Dennis (45+2'), Gordon (57')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Coverage of the League Two clash between Carlisle United and Newport County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Doncaster 2-1 Carlisle
Sunday, January 1 at 3pm in League Two

Newport County

All competitions
Last Game: Rochdale 1-1 Newport
Saturday, January 7 at 3pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawNewport County
39.49% (0.012999999999998 0.01)28.62% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)31.88% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Both teams to score 45.44% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.09% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)60.9% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.07% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)80.92% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.94% (0.013999999999996 0.01)30.06% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.81% (0.018000000000001 0.02)66.19% (-0.021999999999991 -0.02)
Newport County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.97% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)35.03% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.22% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)71.77% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 39.49%
    Newport County 31.87%
    Draw 28.61%
Carlisle UnitedDrawNewport County
1-0 @ 12.65%
2-1 @ 7.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 7.61% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 3.2% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-0 @ 3.05% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 1.68% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 0.96% (0.001 0)
4-0 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.45%
Total : 39.49%
1-1 @ 13.27%
0-0 @ 10.52% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.19% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 28.61%
0-1 @ 11.04% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.96% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 5.79% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-3 @ 2.44% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.03% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 1.46% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 31.87%

Head to Head
Sep 24, 2022 3pm
Newport
1-1
Carlisle
Moriah-Welsh (30')
Whelan (76')
Gibson (49')
Mar 15, 2022 7.45pm
Carlisle
1-2
Newport
Patrick (80')
Demetriou (15'), Azaz (65')
Oct 19, 2021 7.45pm
Newport
2-2
Carlisle
Telford (27', 30')
Haynes (48')
Upson (66'), Haynes (85')
Riley (1'), Clough (67' pen.)
McDonald (14'), Mellish (22')
Apr 13, 2021 7pm
Newport
0-0
Carlisle

Dolan (55')

Alessandra (24'), Mellish (70')
Nov 3, 2020 7pm
Carlisle
3-2
Newport
Alessandra (15' pen.), Mellish (68', 81')
McDonald (48')
Devitt (84'), Sheehan (90+2')
Labadie (22')
rhs 2.0


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