Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Alaves |
| 30.42% ( | 27.85% | 41.73% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.13% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.44% ( | 58.56% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.87% ( | 79.13% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.15% ( | 34.85% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.41% ( | 71.59% ( |
| Alaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.34% ( | 27.66% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.79% | 63.21% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Alaves |
| 1-0 @ 10.16% 2-1 @ 6.88% ( 2-0 @ 5.36% ( 3-1 @ 2.42% 3-0 @ 1.88% 3-2 @ 1.55% ( Other @ 2.17% Total : 30.42% | 1-1 @ 13.05% 0-0 @ 9.64% ( 2-2 @ 4.42% ( Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.84% | 0-1 @ 12.38% 1-2 @ 8.39% 0-2 @ 7.96% ( 1-3 @ 3.6% 0-3 @ 3.41% ( 2-3 @ 1.9% 1-4 @ 1.16% 0-4 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.84% Total : 41.72% |