J1 League | Gameweek 20
Jun 26, 2024 at 11am UK
Yanmar Stadium Nagai

Cerezo
1 - 0
Sagan Tosu

Tezuka (8' og.)
Tanaka (55')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's J1 League clash between Cerezo Osaka and Sagan Tosu, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cerezo Osaka

All competitions
Last Game: Jubilo Iwata 1-1 Cerezo
Saturday, June 22 at 10.30am in J1 League

Sagan Tosu

All competitions
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 3-0 Kyoto Sanga
Saturday, June 22 at 11am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 48.5%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 26.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerezo Osaka in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Cerezo Osaka.

Result
Cerezo OsakaDrawSagan Tosu
48.5% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)25.09% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)26.41% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Both teams to score 52.85% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.01% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)49.99% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.03% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)71.98% (0.0099999999999909 0.01)
Cerezo Osaka Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.37% (-0.0050000000000097 -0.01)20.64% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.8% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)53.2% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.59% (0.0040000000000049 0)33.41% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.96% (0.0010000000000012 0)70.04% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Score Analysis
    Cerezo Osaka 48.5%
    Sagan Tosu 26.41%
    Draw 25.08%
Cerezo OsakaDrawSagan Tosu
1-0 @ 10.88%
2-1 @ 9.41% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 8.59% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 4.95% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 4.52% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 2.71% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.95% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.78% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.07%
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 48.5%
1-1 @ 11.92%
0-0 @ 6.9% (0.0029999999999992 0)
2-2 @ 5.16%
3-3 @ 0.99%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.08%
0-1 @ 7.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 6.54% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.14% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 2.39% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.89%
0-3 @ 1.51% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.39%
Total : 26.41%

How you voted: Cerezo vs Sagan Tosu

Cerezo Osaka
83.3%
Draw
0.0%
Sagan Tosu
16.7%
6
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2024 6am
Gameweek 4
Sagan Tosu
0-2
Cerezo

Horigome (42')
Bueno (48'), Shibayama (64')
Ceara (80')
Shibayama (86')
Jul 8, 2023 11.30am
Gameweek 20
Sagan Tosu
2-1
Cerezo
Horigome (64'), Togashi (90+3')
Iwasaki (39'), Horigome (79')
Ceara (13')
> Preview
Mar 12, 2023 5am
Gameweek 4
Cerezo
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Sep 10, 2022 11am
Gameweek 29
Cerezo
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Suzuki (52'), Patric (90+3')
Honda (82')
May 3, 2022 7am
Gameweek 11
Sagan Tosu
1-1
Cerezo
Fujita (83')
Tashiro (71')
Mendes (73' pen.)
Okuno (52')
rhs 2.0


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