Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FK Zalgiris win with a probability of 41.87%. A win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 32.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a FK Zalgiris win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-0 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.

Result
Ludogorets Razgrad	Draw	FK Zalgiris
32.82% ( 0.1)	25.31% ( 0.02)	41.87% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 55.9% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.27% (

-0.04)

47.73% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.08% (

-0.04)

69.92% (

0.04)

Ludogorets Razgrad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.31% (

0.04)

27.69% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.76% (

0.05)

63.24% (

-0.05)

FK Zalgiris Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.31% (

-0.07)

22.69% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.65% (

-0.11)

56.35% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Ludogorets Razgrad 32.82%

FK Zalgiris 41.87%

Draw 25.3%

Ludogorets Razgrad	Draw	FK Zalgiris
1-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.44% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.22% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 2.88% Total : 32.82%	1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.28% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.3%	0-1 @ 9.32% ( -0) 1-2 @ 8.87% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.91% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 2.21% Total : 41.87%