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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | VVV-Venlo |
| 48.43% | 23.97% | 27.6% |
| Both teams to score 57.5% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.68% | 44.32% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.58% | 18.42% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.42% | 49.58% |
| VVV-Venlo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.48% | 29.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.46% | 65.54% |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | VVV-Venlo |
| 2-1 @ 9.49% 1-0 @ 9.2% 2-0 @ 7.78% 3-1 @ 5.35% 3-0 @ 4.39% 3-2 @ 3.27% 4-1 @ 2.26% 4-0 @ 1.86% 4-2 @ 1.38% Other @ 3.45% Total : 48.43% | 1-1 @ 11.22% 2-2 @ 5.79% 0-0 @ 5.44% 3-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.96% | 1-2 @ 6.85% 0-1 @ 6.64% 0-2 @ 4.05% 1-3 @ 2.79% 2-3 @ 2.36% 0-3 @ 1.65% Other @ 3.28% Total : 27.6% |