Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

Apr 3, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Sportivo
1 - 2
Gremio

Santander (29')
Rios (28'), de Jesus Vera Britez (50'), Torres (76')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Arezo (17' pen.), Braithwaite (71')
Esteves (24'), Pedro (84')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Sportivo Luqueno and Gremio.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sportivo Luqueno

Last Game: Sportivo 2-0 Ameliano
Wednesday, March 5 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Gremio

All competitions

Last Game: Gremio 2-1 Atletico Mineiro
Saturday, March 29 at 9.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Sportivo Luqueno had a probability of 14.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.52%) and 1-2 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Sportivo Luqueno win it was 1-0 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.

Result
Sportivo Luqueno	Draw	Gremio
14.93% ( 2.01)	24.87% ( 1.31)	60.2% ( -3.32)

Both teams to score 37.76% (

1.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.54% (

-1)

61.46% (

0.99)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.66% (

-0.75)

81.33% (

0.74)

Sportivo Luqueno Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.48% (

2.51)

52.52% (

-2.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.66% (

1.55)

86.34% (

-1.56)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.53% (

-1.66)

20.47% (

1.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.06% (

-2.69)

52.93% (

2.68)

Score Analysis

Sportivo Luqueno 14.93%

Gremio 60.19%

Draw 24.86%

Sportivo Luqueno	Draw	Gremio
1-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.74) 2-1 @ 3.54% ( 0.45) 2-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.38) Other @ 2.24% Total : 14.93%	1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.65) 0-0 @ 10.74% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.23) Other @ 0.34% Total : 24.86%	0-1 @ 17.05% ( -0.24) 0-2 @ 13.52% ( -0.92) 1-2 @ 8.71% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 7.15% ( -0.89) 1-3 @ 4.61% ( -0.2) 0-4 @ 2.84% ( -0.52) 1-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.01% Total : 60.19%