Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 26, 2022 at 11.15pm UK

Estadio Melgar

Melgar
3 - 1
Cuiaba

Pierre Archimbaud Arriaran (38'), Bordacahar (85', 89')
Cuesta (48'), Tandazo (58')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Henrique Alves Silva (62')
Henrique Pereira (33'), Marquinhos (40')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Melgar and Cuiaba, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

Last Game: Melgar 3-1 Cuiaba
Thursday, May 26 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana

Next Game: Deportivo Cali vs. Melgar
Thursday, June 30 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 52.45%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 21.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.66%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.

Result
Melgar	Draw	Cuiaba
52.45% ( 0.03)	26.11% ( -0.03)	21.44% ( 0)

Both teams to score 44.79% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.04% (

0.12)

57.96% (

-0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.34% (

0.09)

78.66% (

-0.09)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.79% (

0.06)

22.21% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.37% (

0.1)

55.63% (

-0.1)

Cuiaba Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.58% (

0.07)

42.42% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.2% (

0.06)

78.8% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Melgar 52.44%

Cuiaba 21.44%

Draw 26.1%

Melgar	Draw	Cuiaba
1-0 @ 14.17% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 10.66% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.73% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.83% Total : 52.44%	1-1 @ 12.15% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.61% Total : 26.1%	0-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.47% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.49% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 1.08% Total : 21.44%