Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing Club win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 26.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing Club win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Melgar win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Racing Club would win this match.