Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 7, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Centenario

Boston River
1 - 5
Independiente

Anello (7', 7')
Acosta (60'), Acosta (60'), Amado (84'), Amado (84')

FT(HT: 2-4)

Gimenez Rojas (14', 14', 61' pen., 61' pen.), Lautaro Millan (21', 21'), Tarzia (46', 46'), Hidalgo (90+2', 90+2')
Gimenez Rojas (71'), Gimenez Rojas (71')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Boston River and Independiente.

Form, Standings, Stats

Boston River

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Boston River 1-0 Wanderers
Friday, May 2 at 11pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Independiente

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Rosario 1-0 Independiente
Saturday, May 3 at 10.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 46.27%. A draw had a probability of 30.3% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 23.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.13%) and 1-2 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.32%), while for a Boston River win it was 1-0 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.

Result
Boston River	Draw	Independiente
23.38% ( 0.88)	30.35% ( 0.72)	46.27% ( -1.6)

Both teams to score 36.82% (

-0.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

30.79% (

-1.39)

69.21% (

1.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

13.27% (

-0.91)

86.73% (

0.91)

Boston River Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.93% (

0.05)

47.07% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.46% (

0.04)

82.54% (

-0.03)

Independiente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.56% (

-1.55)

30.44% (

1.55)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.36% (

-1.89)

66.64% (

1.89)

Score Analysis

Boston River 23.37%

Independiente 46.26%

Draw 30.34%

Boston River	Draw	Independiente
1-0 @ 10.79% ( 0.55) 2-1 @ 4.84% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.44% Total : 23.37%	0-0 @ 14.32% ( 0.71) 1-1 @ 12.84% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.3% Total : 30.34%	0-1 @ 17.04% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 10.13% ( -0.36) 1-2 @ 7.64% ( -0.26) 0-3 @ 4.02% ( -0.33) 1-3 @ 3.03% ( -0.24) 0-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 0.9% ( -0.11) Other @ 1.17% Total : 46.26%