Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 70.97%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for San Martin de San Juan had a probability of 8.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (17.18%) and 3-0 (10.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.4%), while for a San Martin de San Juan win it was 0-1 (4.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 17.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.