Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 54.72%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 17.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.53%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.07%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.