Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 65.76%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 13.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.2%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for River Plate in this match.