Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 49.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.55%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.